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☆ Joseph Stiglitz on why America's appetite for Trump endures
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

If Trump is elected again, Stiglitz said, he could well pull support for Ukraine, sending grain prices soaring. For Stiglitz, the 2001 winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, America's appetite for Trump can be traced back a little more than four decades ago to the election of Ronald Reagan. "We've had 40 years of a neoliberal experiment: Strip away the regulations and lower the taxes — taxes are much lower than they used to be. But Komlos and Stiglitz don't place blame solely on Reagan for the growing economic inequality. Every European country that's had a wealth tax has walked away from it, by and large."

Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, Trump, Stiglitz, Joe Biden, Ronald Reagan, —, that's, Reagan, We've, Dina Litovsky, Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman, That's, Stiglitz doesn't, John Komlos, Komlos, Joe, Bill Clinton, Clinton, Barack Obama, insurrectionists, Desmond Lachman, Carter, Douglas Holtz, Eakin, George W, John McCain's, Holtz, America Stiglitz, Hayek, Friedman, Claudia Sahm, you've, what's Organizations: Columbia Business School, Business, Capitol, Biden, Trump, :, Good Society, America's, Federal Reserve, Budget, Bank, University of Munich, Duke University, University of North, Democratic, North American Free Trade, World Trade Organization, American Enterprise Institute, Bush's, Economic Advisers Locations: Manhattan, Ukraine, Russia, China, Beijing, Taiwan, University of North Carolina, Spain, America

☆ Why a Brazilian UFC star is championing a dead Austrian economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-28 | by ( David Shortell | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In recent years, the free-market economist and the contrarian Austrian school he led midcentury have been turned into a hashtag deployed by tax-wary workers. Ludwig von Mises From Mises Institute“Ludwig von Mises is Latin America’s leading economist,” declared the headline of a Bloomberg opinion piece earlier this month by economist Tyler Cowen. His free-market policy prescriptions, framed by an economic thinking centered on human behavior and individual choice, were widely considered out of fashion at the time. “That is my jam!” Shapiro said of the Austrian school. “If you start to understand the concept of the Austrian economic school,” Moicano said in a recent YouTube video, “you’re going to understand that’s what I need: free market, liberties, and wealth, my brother.

Persons: Renato Moicano, “, Ludwig von Mises, ” Moicano, Mises, midcentury, influencers, “ Ludwig von Mises, ”, Tyler Cowen, Marx, Camila Rocha, Moicano, Jair Bolsonaro, Javier Milei, Fabrice Coffrini, Milei, “ Milei, Daniel Raisbeck, Raisbeck, Milton Friedman, ” Mises, El, Nayib Bukele, Amanda Andrade, Rhoades, Rocha, Ben Shapiro, ” Shapiro, It’s, “ you’re Organizations: CNN — Brazilian UFC, Austrian, Mises, “, Bloomberg, New York University, Brazilian Center of Analysis, UFC, Economic, Cato Institute, Argentina national, Salvador, Conservative Political, Conference, Mises Institute, Mises Institutes, Fox Business, YouTube Locations: Austrian, United States, South, Central America, American, El Salvador, Argentina, Brazil, Davos, AFP, Milei, Buenos Aires, Mises, National Harbor , Maryland, Washington, Latin America

And what would happen over the years was that these new entrants would get better, and better, and better until all of a sudden they’d taken over the industry. And any one leader launching one of these things might go, well, listen, we need to change. But we do need a way of distinguishing between change that lifts humans up and change that pushes people down. There is good change, and less good change, and bad change. And if leading is about making things better, then leading has to be about understanding what people need so that they can help you make things better.

Persons: Ashley Goodall, I’ve, we’ve, they’re, Milton Friedman, Clayton Christensen, We’re Organizations: Unilever Locations: Silicon Valley, That’s

☆ Boeing Disaster Proves Americans Businesses Greedy Mentality Is Broken
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-11 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +16 min

They expose decades of American corporate philosophy gone awry. A good American company isn’t just a vehicle for financial returns; it is first and foremost an employer, a contributor to economic and/or technological innovation, and a source of US power. But it’s clear that what Boeing — and the entire American corporate body politic — needs is nothing short of a philosophical counterrevolution. Over these three decades of plenty for Boeing’s shareholders, the company’s staff was asked to penny-pinch. Boeing’s stock cratered, and France’s Airbus , a rival once colloquially known as “Scare Bus,” started to eat the American company’s lunch .

Persons: it’s, could’ve, William Lazonick, “, It’s, won’t, William McGee, T.A, Wilson, Frank Shrontz, Max, Peter Robison, —, ”, Dave Calhoun, we’ve, Scott Kirby, hasn’t, “ We’re, Lazonick, wasn’t, Milton Friedman, Michael Jensen, Jensen, nary, Jack Welch, Welch, Wall, ” Lazonick, We’ve, Mary Barra, ” McGee Organizations: Alaska Airlines, Boeing, Investments, University of Massachusetts, ”, NASA, Airbus, Alaska Airlines Max, Wall, United Airlines, Federal Aviation Administration, CNBC, Washington, University of Chicago, Electric, Wall Street, GE, Dow Jones, Securities and Exchange Commission, Reality Labs, Deutsche Bank, Business, General Motors, United Auto Workers, Companies, GM, & $ Locations: Washington, America

☆ Some options trades for avoiding an asset bubble and other macroeconomic troubles
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

There are some trades for investors looking to avoid a possible asset bubble and other potholes that could be ahead. The standard 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose even further, a function of both the rising risk-free rate and the rising spread. Buying bonds has interest rate risk. Moreover, the spread between mortgage rates and Treasuries is unusually high. Risk-free rates stay static or even rise mildly, but if the spread narrows mortgage rates could fall, a tailwind for a mortgage portfolio.

Persons: There's, Murray Rothbard, Milton Friedman, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke's, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Howard Marks, Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway, Marks, Steve Eisman, Neuberger Berman, they've Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank, Vanguard Value, Technology, MBS Locations: U.S, deflate, Berkshire

☆ Argentina election: Will Milei’s plan to ditch peso for the dollar be a vote-winner against Massa?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Analysis Stefano Pozzebon | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

To fix the problem, Argentina should abandon the peso and adopt the dollar, whose value is set by the US Federal Reserve and cannot be printed at will. Massa has criticized the plan for dollarization as a surrender of national sovereignty and attempted to show that the government’s current actions are already paying dividends. Other mainstream politicians, including former the President Mauricio Macri and another former election candidate, Patricia Bullrich, have endorsed Milei despite sharing some reservations on dollarization. ET) and the vote count is expected to be quick – barring any unforeseen problems or objections, that is. Milei appeared to question the results of the first round of voting in October, although his party did not formally appeal.

Persons: Argentina’s, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Milei, Massa, dollarization, Pope Francis, “, Satan ”, Francis, Tucker Carlson, Milton Friedman, Argentinians, Mauricio Macri, Patricia Bullrich, Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, Spain’s José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, Jair Bolsonaro, Mario Vargas Llosa, Mariano Rajoy, Donald Trump Organizations: CNN, Massa, Union por la Patria, Union, La Libertad, US Federal Reserve, Cato Institute Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Ecuador, El Salvador, US, Argentina’s, Peruvian, Spanish

☆ A Life of Milton Friedman Seeks the Nuance in His Free-Market Gospel
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Jennifer Szalai | More About Jennifer Szalai | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

MILTON FRIEDMAN: The Last Conservative, by Jennifer BurnsIn writing her new biography of the Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman, known throughout his long life for his cheerful endorsement of deregulation and free markets, Jennifer Burns certainly had her work cut out for her. “As he increasingly came to symbolize a political movement,” she writes, “the nuance and complexity of his ideas was lost.”But even Burns has to admit that this attention to “nuance and complexity” was something that Friedman did a lot to discourage. The principles underlying such intricate cooperation were “really very simple,” he said. At the University of Chicago, where Friedman spent most of his teaching life, he edged out the leftist scholars clustered in the Cowles Commission for Economic Research, shrewdly getting the Rockefeller Foundation to pull its funding from the commission and finance Friedman’s workshop instead. Charismatic in the classroom, Friedman didn’t just teach students; he created converts.

Persons: MILTON FRIEDMAN, Jennifer Burns, Milton Friedman, Friedman, ”, Burns, fashioning, baldheaded Friedman, Burns —, Ayn Rand —, shrewdly, Friedman didn’t, “, ” Friedman Organizations: Conservative, Newsweek, Productivity, Stanford, University of Chicago, Commission, Economic Research, Rockefeller Foundation

☆ Big government will drive the next market cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Growth picked up while quiescent inflation permitted interest rates to fall. Bereft of government support, central banks tried to stimulate their economies by pushing interest rates to new lows. That means interest rates will struggle to return to the ultra-low levels seen after 2008. The first takeaway is that higher debt levels, inflation and interest rates should be bad for bonds. Vincent Deluard of StoneX has proposed a division between intangible and tangible companies.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, ” Ronald Reagan’s, Milton Friedman –, Britain’s Margaret Thatcher –, Reaganomics ”, Réka Juhász, Nathan J, Lane, Dani Rodrik, government’s, Vincent Deluard, StoneX, Lockheed Martin, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Republicans, Capitol, REUTERS, Reuters, Bank, Asset, Monetary Fund, Treasury, Capital Economics, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Capital, Facebook, Meta, Lockheed, Micron Technology, U.S, Congress, Nasdaq, Energy, Exxon Mobil, Labour Party, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, “, Ukraine, Covid, Europe, United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan

☆ A quick explainer on Silicon Valley's newest, controversial philosophy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Hasan Chowdhury | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

It's an old Silicon Valley philosophy packaged anew: Growth without guardrails. Silicon Valley enters the age of e/accAndreessen and other prominent Silicon Valley figures such as Y Combinator president Garry Tan have quietly added the term e/acc to their social media profiles. In his manifesto, Andreessen calls it "techno-optimism." To some extent, it's a repackaging of what Silicon Valley has always peddled — let us build, grow, and make money without limitations. "Techno-optimists believe growth is progress," Andreessen argues, adding that growth is driven by the progress of technology without hindrance.

Persons: Marc Andreessen, —, Andreessen, Andreessen Horowitz, Andy Warhol, Milton Friedman, Prometheus, Y, Garry Tan, pesky ethicists, Carl, Benedikt Frey, Frey Organizations: Service, Silicon, acc Andreessen, acc, Netscape, Oxford Internet Institute Locations: Silicon Valley, digressions, OpenAI

☆ Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella talks AI, closing the Activision Blizzard deal, and his best business decision so far
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-22 | by ( Mathias Döpfner | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +47 min

Just like the cloud transformed every software category, we think AI is one such transformational shift. Therefore, this notion of Copilots that we're introducing is really going to be revolutionary in terms of driving productivity and communication. Milton Friedman once famously said: "the business of business is business." One is, is the business of business just business? So, I think AI can actually be very helpful in many ways to be a little more empathetic and more understanding of the world.

Persons: Satya Nadella, Axel Springer's, OpenAI, Nadella, Axel Springer, —, Mathias Döpfner, Pankaj Nangia, Steve Ballmer, Steve, I've, It's, I'd, Herbert Simon, Karl Marx, Lakshmi, Hayek, Marx, Justin Sullivan, Carol Dweck, they're, Vuk Valcic, That's, it's, you've, Jae, Copilot, Jeff Bezos, I'm, We've, Milton Friedman, Elon Musk, we've, Lina Khan, Sam Altman, Sam, Tomohiro Ohsumi, Bard, Bing, Mathias, wouldn't, Picasso, Jakub Porzycki, Mustafa Suleyman, We'll Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Olympic, Australia, Getty, Activision Blizzard, Gaming, AP, Windows, Linux, Children's Hospital, University of Wisconsin, Associated Press, Google Locations: Berlin, India, Hyderabad, Seattle, United States, Milwaukee, American, China, derisking, DC, Beijing, Europe, GitHub, British

Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei of La Libertad Avanza party reacts during the closing event of his electoral campaign ahead of the presidential election, in Buenos Aires, Argentina, October 18, 2023. The result, according to the cloning company, was at least four "grandchildren": Murray, Milton, Robert and Lucas, who are named for Milei's economist idols including Milton Friedman. After Conan's death, Milei sent the dog's DNA sample to animal cloning firm PerPETuate, which has written publicly about cloning Milei's dogs on its company website. Through a medium, Milei's original dog, he alleges, gave him the mission of becoming Argentina's president, which he could - against the odds - pull off today or next month. As Milei's political profile has soared, his dogs have become a point of criticism.

Persons: Javier Milei, Matias Baglietto, Milei's, Conan, confidants, Murray, Milton, Robert, Lucas, Milton Friedman, Milei, Juan Luis Gonzalez, Sergio Massa, Patricia Bullrich, Gonzalez, Opponent Massa, Anna, Catherine Brigida, Candelaria Grimberg, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Argentine, La Libertad, REUTERS, Argentina, Economy, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, BUENOS AIRES

"He is the change that Argentina needs," said 28-year-old Milei voter Ayrton Ortiz at a recent rally in Buenos Aires province in support of the candidate. Those working with his campaign say it is his authenticity that has made him so successful, especially with two-fifths of the population in poverty and looking for a new voice. "You can like him or not, but he is himself," said Fernando Cerimedo, a political consultant who works on Milei's campaign. Many Milei voters say they are willing to take the risk. At the end of the month, you see how they count pennies and cry," said Milei voter Valentina Brites, 18.

Persons: Javier Milei, Agustin Marcarian, Juan Luis Gonzalez, Gonzalez, Milei, Donald Trump, Beppe Grillo, Ayrton Ortiz, Sergio Massa, Patricia Bullrich, MURRAY, MILTON, ROBERT AND LUCAS Milei, Karina, Conan, Murray, Milton, Robert, Lucas, Milton Friedman, Eduardo Eurnekian, Fernando Cerimedo, Fernando Morra, Valentina Brites, Javier, Anna, Catherine Brigida, Eliana Raszewksi, Lucinda Elliott, Adam Jourdan, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Argentine, La Libertad Avanza, REUTERS, American, Peronist, Forces, Libertad Avanza, Reuters, Thomson Locations: La Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina, BUENOS AIRES, Argentine, Candelaria

STOCKHOLM, Oct 9 (Reuters) - American economic historian Claudia Goldin won the 2023 Nobel economics prize for her work examining wage inequality between men and women, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said on Monday. "This year's Laureate in the Economic Sciences, Claudia Goldin, provided the first comprehensive account of women's earnings and labour market participation through the centuries," the prize-giving body said in a statement. Goldin, who in 1990 became the first woman to be tenured at the Harvard economics department, is only the third woman to win the Nobel economics prize. "Claudia Goldin's discoveries have vast societal implications," said Randi Hjalmarsson, member of the Economic Prize committee. As with the other Nobel prizes, the vast majority of the economics awards have gone to men.

Persons: Claudia Goldin, Alfred Nobel, Goldin, Hans Ellegren, Claudia Goldin's, Randi Hjalmarsson, Jakob Svensson, Friedrich August von Hayek, Milton Friedman, Paul Krugman, Ben Bernanke, Elinor Ostrom, Esther Duflo, Simon Johnson, Mark John, Niklas Pollard, Johan Ahlander, Terje Solsvik, Catherine Evans Organizations: Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sveriges, Economic Sciences, Harvard, Pew Research, Commission, Social, Thomson Locations: STOCKHOLM, COVID, Norwegian, Iranian, United States, Europe, U.S

☆ Thomas Sowell on the Trouble With ‘Social Justice’
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-07 | by ( Jason L. Riley | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Wonder Land: Whether it's the migrant crisis, gender identity, shoplifting, student loans or decriminalizing federal laws on cannabis possession, Republican presidential candidates should not stop talking about the culture. Images: Bloomberg News/AFP/Getty Images Composite: Mark KellyThomas Sowell is best known for his insights on racial controversies, but race isn’t the main topic of most of his books in a career that spans more than six decades. Mr. Sowell, 93, is an economist who earned a doctorate from the University of Chicago, where his professors included Milton Friedman , Friedrich Hayek and other future Nobel laureates. His specialty is the history of ideas, and his most recent book, “Social Justice Fallacies,” harks back to his writings on social theory and intellectual history, which include “Knowledge and Decisions” (1980), “The Vision of the Anointed” (1996) and “The Quest for Cosmic Justice” (1999).

Persons: Mark Kelly Thomas Sowell, Sowell, Milton Friedman, Friedrich Hayek, ”, Justice ” Organizations: Republican, Bloomberg, Getty, University of Chicago, Justice

☆ The Queen’s question returns with a vengeance
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The world’s leading central banks had spent the previous two decades focusing on low inflation, neglecting risks to financial stability. Central bankers counter correctly that predictive accuracy is not the same as explanatory power. Yet it is far from clear how today’s independent central banks should respond to these overtly political struggles. In 2021, when the Phillips Curve was asleep at the wheel, the growth in the money supply was flashing red. The unfortunate truth is that there are many answers to the Queen’s question this time round – but no single magic solution.

Persons: Elizabeth, Prince Andrew , Duke, York, Prince Philip , Duke of Edinburgh, Tom Nicholson, Queen Elizabeth, Ben Bernanke, don’t, Phillips, Isabella Weber, Guido Lorenzoni, Andrew Bailey, monetarism, Milton Friedman, Anna Schwartz, Winston Churchill, Bernanke, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum 私, 「 Organizations: Westminster Abbey, REUTERS, Reuters, Bank of England, U.S . Federal, Phillips, University of Massachusetts Amherst, University of Chicago, MIT, United, 「 Reuters Locations: Westminster, London, Britain, British, Central, Ukraine, Paris, United States

This was not a WWE wrestling show, but the 2023 presidential race in Argentina where political outsider Javier Milei is the leading candidate. Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei for La Libertad Avanza coalition gestures next to Carolina Piparo, candidate for Governor of the Province of Buenos Aires, during a campaign rally in La Plata, Buenos Aires on September 12. Milei is presenting himself as the candidate of renewal – an offer that clearly struck a chord with people in the primary vote. “I’ll vote for Milei because I think he’ll change things,” says Eduardo Murchio, a taxi driver in Argentina’s capital Buenos Aires. A worker receives Argentine peso banknotes in a shop in Buenos Aires on Sept. 26, 2023.

Persons: “, Javier Milei, –, ”, Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro, Carolina Piparo, Agustin Marcarian, Trump, Milei, Milei’s, Eduardo Murchio, “ I’m, it’s, Erica Canepa, Milton Friedman –, Javier Marcus, Marcus, dollarizing, Bolsonaro, Teresa Fria, Pope Francis, Pope, Satan ”, “ Pope Francis, Emiliano Lasalvia, Patricia Bullrich, Sergio Massa, Massa, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Bullrich, Anita Pouchard Serra, Claudio Jacquelin, Facundo Nejamkis Organizations: CNN, WWE, Argentine, La Libertad, National Institute of Statistics, Reuters, Bloomberg, Getty, Rosario National University, Trump, Catholic, CIA, Milei, Unity, Homeland, La, Español Locations: Argentina, Mar del Plata, Argentine, Carolina, Province of Buenos Aires, La Plata, Buenos Aires, Latin America, Ecuador, El Salvador, Panama, AFP, Argentina's

☆ Is School Choice Destroying Public Education?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Dale Russakoff | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

THE DEATH OF PUBLIC SCHOOL: How Conservatives Won the War Over Education in America, by Cara FitzpatrickCara Fitzpatrick’s first book,“The Death of Public School,” opens with a superb survey of the political, cultural, legal and natural forces undermining public trust in our nation’s schools. This means less money for traditional public schools and the 90 percent of American students who attend them. “Support for traditional public education has become another partisan divide in our already divided country,” writes Fitzpatrick, a Pulitzer Prize-winning education reporter and editor. “The Death of Public School” is a history of how that happened. And, curiously, it ends before the arrival of the Covid pandemic and the convulsions of school closings, book banning and school culture wars — all of which have become accelerants for the “freedom of choice” idea in education.

Persons: Cara Fitzpatrick Cara Fitzpatrick’s, ”, Fitzpatrick, Mark Twain, Milton Friedman Organizations: Conservatives Won, Public School, Republican, Public Locations: America

☆ The ‘Neutral’ Interest Rate, R-Star, and Other Difficult Economic Numbers - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Yet even though economics lends itself to number-crunching, getting or even defining the numbers we crunch can be problematic. In particular, the Fed would very much like to know how high it needs to keep the interest rate — or more precisely, the interest rate minus expected inflation — to avoid overheating the economy and reigniting inflation. This “natural rate of interest,” a term invented in 1898 by the Swedish economist Knut Wicksell, is often referred to as r* or r-star. Back in 1968, Milton Friedman, in a deliberate echo of Wicksell, argued that there is also a “natural” rate of unemployment consistent with stable inflation. Since referring to any level of unemployment as natural raises some people’s hackles, this is often referred to as the NAIRU, for non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment — and often denoted as, you guessed it, u*.

Persons: —, John Maynard Keynes, Victoria, Queen Elizabeth —, don’t, Knut Wicksell, Milton Friedman Locations: Swedish

☆ Wall Street is declaring victory too early — the US is still headed for a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

In theory, these higher interest rates push down demand and slow inflation by forcing companies to cut prices to attract stretched-thin customers. And Americans have been spending right through the higher interest rates: Personal consumption expenditures and retail sales numbers have continued to forge upward. But eventually, this attitude will wane as people realize that the higher rates aren't a flash in the pan. The Treasury yield curve measures the different interest rates that are paid out on various bonds issued by the US government. It's the same story every time, both Kantrowitz and Rosenberg say: Investors are bad at pricing in a recession before it unfolds.

Persons: Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Milton Friedman, Bob Doll, Doll, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Tom Essaye, Essaye, Granger, Kantrowitz, Jerome Powell, William Edwards Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Consumer, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Silicon Valley Bank, Rosenberg Research, Fed, Auto, Wall, CPI, Institute for Supply Management's, Treasury, Royal Bank of Canada Locations: Silicon, YOLO

That would be a lag of eight months, significantly longer than the average gap between last hike and first cut going back decades. "In the past markets have tended to underestimate how high rates are raised and underestimate how low rates are cut. Inflation targeting, more sophisticated financial markets, transparent central bank communications, and greater central bank autonomy since the 1990s have all contributed as well. Brazil's central bank, one of the first to raise rates in early 2021, has started cutting them after a 12-month pause. Current market pricing suggests that will not come until 2025, which would be an even longer lag.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, de Chazal, Joe Lavorgna, BoE, Milton Friedman's, Jamie McGeever, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Bank of, Reuters, The Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: New, New York City, U.S, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO , Florida, Brazil's

☆ The Republican Party’s Split on Economics
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( David Leonhardt | More About David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board has spent the last few months trying to boost Gov. As DeSantis’s campaign has sagged, The Journal’s editorialists have offered him tactical advice for confronting Donald Trump. It will shape the Republican Party in the post-Trump era — however far away that may be — and, by extension, influence the country’s economic policy. A Republican splitThe Journal editorial page represents an outlook that dominated the Republican Party from Ronald Reagan’s presidency in the 1980s until Trump’s arrival in 2016. It includes light regulation, low taxes, cuts to government benefits and high levels of trade and immigration.

Persons: Ron DeSantis’s, Donald Trump, DeSantis, Ronald Reagan’s, Milton Friedman Organizations: Gov, Republican Party, Republican Locations: China

☆ The U.S. Economy’s Lost Decade - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

President Obama did pass what media reports insistently called a “massive” fiscal stimulus, but it was in fact far too small, given the size of the financial shock. That’s not 20/20 hindsight; I was tearing my hair out over the plan’s inadequacy in real time. Or they didn’t want to work, maybe because the improving quality of video games was keeping them at home. OK, but before I simply declare that inadequate government stimulus led to a lost decade for the U.S. economy, I need to address one objection from economic theory. Conversely, if the economy persistently has excessive unemployment, the hypothesis says that we should see ever-falling inflation, perhaps eventually leading to deflation.

Persons: Obama, insistently, belying, Milton Organizations: Obama Locations: Washington, U.S

☆ Why declaring victory over inflation too soon may be a mistake for economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Natalie Rose Goldberg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The market is fully expecting another interest rate hike from the Fed in July, after it skipped a rate hike in June. For the Fed, ideal inflation is in the target range of 2%. But he is more encouraged about the economy avoiding recession, which recent economic history said would not be possible. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed her commitment to lowering inflation even further on "Squawk on the Street" last week. "It's really too early to say that we can declare victory on inflation.

Persons: Tom Werner, Jerome Powell, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Paul McCulley, Tom Lee, Fundstrat, Lee, Liz Young, Roger Ferguson, Ferguson, Hugh Johnston, they've, CFOs, Milton Friedman's, Pimco, Tiffany Wilding, Wilding, Mary Daly Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market Committee, Fed, CME Fed, Yardeni, Dow Jones, Dow, PepsiCo, CNBC, Francisco Fed Locations: U.S, Georgetown

The amorphous lag explains the cat-and-mouse game between the Fed and markets that has played out since the central bank began its tightening cycle last year. For their part, markets have long expected the Fed to quickly pivot to a pretty aggressive series of rate cuts, largely to counter the accumulated lag effects of the tightening cycle. Taken at its most literal level, the 500 basis points of tightening since March 2022 - 17 months ago - have still not registered at all. There is a growing body of opinion that the lags have shortened considerably since Friedman shared his 'long and variable' theory. Reuters ImageData on Wednesday showed that consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.0% in June, down from 4.0% in May.

Persons: Keen, Milton Friedman, Friedman, Christopher Waller, Phil Suttle, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Fed, Kansas City Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S

But tempting as it is to buy into that - leading indicators have been flashing red for months, as yet to no avail - we are probably not at that stage just yet. "Most analysts have no choice but to have their initial bias gravitate to the mean or median range of these leading indicators," he said. Reuters ImageReuters ImageLONG AND VARIABLE LAGSOne of the most reliable recession indicators is the spread between three-month and 10-year U.S. bond yields. Reuters ImageReuters ImageAgain, if the economy isn't in recession by the end of the year, this time it really is different. The signals sent by leading indicators recently have been pretty clear - it just remains to be seen whether they will be accurate.

Persons: Jerome Powell, LEI, Eric Basmajian, Milton Friedman's, payrolls, Jamie McGeever, Jan Harvey Organizations: Federal, Reuters, EPB Research, National Bureau of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Ukraine

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